Knowing what you don’t know

Suppose there is a horse race taking place today between two horses – one called Heads; his opponent, Tails. Let’s also suppose that these two horses have run against each other once and dead-heated and are trained by the same trainer. For simplicity, let’s also assume there is nothing in published information (e.g, jockey, pedigree, ground, foaling dates, etc) that could make one fancy one to finish ahead of the other when they meet again under the same conditions.

Now, as this is such a simple example, it is incredibly easy to price up based on all the available information. In a 100% book, the market would of course be Heads: evens,  Tails: evens.

Let’s also assume that a bookmaker, which again for simplicity one can assume is working with the same information as you, has priced it up at Heads 11/10, Tails 10/11.

What is your betting strategy? Pretty easy stuff – you make Heads value, so must bet accordingly. You back Heads – and you may well base your stake on the margin of value you think you are getting. So, maybe 1 point here as you are offered 11/10; if it was 6/4 a bigger bet would be in order – 3 pts perhaps. There are various staking systems one could employ, but all would based on the same principle – the bigger the theoretical value you are offered, the bigger the bet. This is basic gambling theory.

Now, let’s make things more difficult. Let’s say that we can’t now assume that everyone has the same information to work with and that there is a betting exchange market where everyone, with their differing levels of knowledge and skill, can bet against each other . In this new scenario, some will know how well Heads worked last Thursday, whether Tails ate up yesterday, which one the trainer privately thinks is the better prospect, which one the work rider thinks might be going a bit doggy on the gallops – and of course, some won’t.

Let’s forward to racetime to the market after nearly all the punters have shown their hand (with one would assume the long term successful punters having exerted more of an influence over it due to bigger stakes) and the market now shows: Heads 13/8 Tails 8/13

Remember – your tissue is Heads Evens, Tails Evens. What is your betting strategy now? As the theoretical value is now much greater than the 11/10 you were offered earlier, do you necessarily have a bigger bet now?

No. There is a new and complicated problem as we know that you are now not playing against people with the same information as you. What you now have to do is make an assessment as to the relevance of what the market is now saying and then decide if you still wish to play. You don’t know exactly why Heads is such a big price, but you do know that a significant weight of money has pushed it up to that price and such significant late money could easily (but not definitely) have come from long term winning players.

Of course there is no right ‘answer’ to this problem now – some punters would rather take the 8/13 Tails to be on the ‘fancied’ horse whereas others would take the theoretical ‘value’ on the 13/8 Heads. Others, who maybe took the 11/10 Heads earlier in the day would just sigh and perhaps realise that, on this occasion at least, the ‘known unknowns’ in the market have worked against them. The sensible way to tackle the problem is to attempt to assess to what extent you are in the dark. If you are betting in competitive, high grade, high value races with top class and relatively exposed horses, then perhaps you can retain faith that you can still bet according to your tissue to a large extent at race time. If these are low grade races with unreliable horses (…not to mention connections), then it would be pure folly to ignore what the market is telling you.

One thing is certain: anyone who doesn’t realise this situation is different to the original scenario where you were playing against someone with the same information is both incorrect and likely to suffer financially if they blindly follow the same staking strategy.

Betting now should not just involve purely betting based on your assessment of incomplete information, it is about being aware of and adapting to what you don’t know.

Now is the time to pull out all the stops for Caviar…

16-1, 12-1, 8-1, 6-1, 5-1, 7-2, 5-2….

If you saw that sequence of odds on an upcoming race you would think there was an almighty gamble being hatched and that the horse in question probably had a very strong chance of winning. But these odds aren’t for an upcoming race – they are the odds, in order, that Coral have quoted for Black Caviar to win any race at Royal Ascot 2013 over the last few months…

First things first, this is a ‘special’ market and has not attracted a huge amount of turnover – it is the kind of market that bookmakers like to offer to spark a bit of debate and create interest in the sport. But, money has been traded at all rates – a tenner here, a fifty there and since the end of last season, what had been laughed off as a ludicrous proposition when we first put the market up has now become a real possibility. Black Caviar returned to the track in the new year and all talk of pulled muscles, long trips and impending retirement melted away as she smashed the track record at Flemington in the Lightning Stakes and followed up in the William Reid Stakes with customary ease.

So what now? Ascot’s Nick Smith has of course made it abundantly clear to connections that Royal Ascot would love to see Black Caviar back, but he hasn’t been pushing too hard, realising – quite correctly – that it won’t be ‘pressure’ that brings Black Caviar back to England; the owners and trainer have to want to come back.

The plan now seems to revolve around a potential mating with our own unbeaten ‘super horse’ turned budding ‘super sire’, Frankel.

Black Caviar’s co-owner, Gary Wilkie, was quoted today as saying,

“The only reason you would go to Royal Ascot is that we are going to go to Frankel,” 
“We’re not going to go to Royal Ascot if we can’t go to Frankel.
“That’s the issue not all the other bits and pieces. We have got a lot of decisions to make.

“I reckon we’ll all get together in the next week and have a chat. We have to pull our finger out.”

So, for Ascot and British racing in general, now is surely the time to act. If QIPCO were willing to put up a million pounds for a Sussex Stakes showdown last season, then I’m sure someone could find a nice juicy carrot to dangle for Black Caviar now. Black Caviar’s owners should be offered a free nomination to Frankel if she competes at Royal Ascot – and maybe there is something else that could be done. Raise the status of the King’s Stand – a switch to Saturday perhaps and an increased purse.

The real beauty of this is that it suits everyone. Racing obviously benefits from seeing this incredible sprinter back at Ascot, but it also gives her connections the chance to prove that she is much better than she showed last season in the Diamond Jubilee (there is no doubt about that, by the way). Plus, Ascot and Frankel would provide the fairytale end to the fairytale career. No-one can take away what this phenomenal mare has achieved, but I’m sure everyone, both in Australia and the UK, would feel a slight sense of anti-climax if her career ended with just another procession against known inferiors in Australia. After last season’s close shave at Ascot, I think you would find plenty of leading horsemen fancying their chances against her. Shea Shea and Eagle Regiment, who will both show us what they are capable of in a hot looking Al Quoz sprint in Dubai on Saturday, could both be very strong contenders; Mental, Godolphin’s own Aussie sprinter could have a go and then there is Lord Kanaloa from Japan, whose connections are apparently considering a trip to England. Plus, there are the likes of the UK’s Pearl Secret and maybe even Reckless Abandon who could help to ensure that Black Caviar’s final challenge will also be her toughest.

It is often the case that you don’t appreciate something until it has gone and the 2013 season in England is in danger of becoming one big Frankel hangover. Getting Black Caviar over to Ascot for one last burn up against a strong international field would  provide the perfect cure. It would be the race that stopped two nations. Let’s make it happen.

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Update: Since this morning the price on Black Caviar winning at Ascot has shortened again – first to 6/4 and then to evens, due to the fact that her trainer, Peter Moody, gave a very positive interview on the subject on Attheraces. One gets the feeling that if connections can get a deal sorted on a covering from Frankel, then it is full steam ahead for the King’s Stand Stakes.

Meanwhile, in Japan – Lord Kanaloa recorded an easy success in the Grade 1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen, winning in record time. His jockey,  Yasunari Iwata, claimed that the horse is “the strongest sprinter in the world”.

Things are coming to the boil quite nicely….

 

 

Time for the ‘racecourse gallop’ culture to end…

What do Bobs Worth, Long Run, Albertas Run, Riverside Theatre and Binocular have in common? One correct answer is that they have all won Grade 1s at the Cheltenham Festival in the past. Another is that, despite all potentially being big ‘draws’, none of them have raced in the United Kingdom in 2013. And finally – a third correct answer is that they all ran at Kempton last Saturday; not in a race, but in a racecourse gallop.

Bobs Worth. Nice horse – any chance we can see him race?

The reason for the gallops was quite clear in that their trainers wanted to put the finishing touches to their horses’ Cheltenham preparations. Now, call me old fashioned, but I thought there was another way of preparing a horse for the Festival. Don’t laugh out loud at this suggestion – but has anyone considered actually running some of these star horses in a horse race?

Throughout this season we have seen one uncompetitive Cheltenham trial after another. One supposed Champion Hurdle trial in February, the Kingwell hurdle, was reduced to a mere cake-walk for Zarkandar, while the Gold Cup trial at Newbury, the Denman Chase,  saw Silviniaco Conti triumph at odds-on. This lack of competition is unattractive for pretty much everyone involved in the sport (bar perhaps the connections of the odds-on shots), yet racecourses seem only too happy to accommodate these requests to allow these Grade 1 horses – the very horses who would and should be putting numbers on their gates by running in big races – to use their facilities for racecourse gallops.

Enough. Other than in exceptional circumstances, racecourses should flat out ban horses from having racecourse gallops. Trainers should get their Cheltenham hopes as fit as they can at home and that extra ‘edge’ should come from running in races such as the Kingwell Hurdle or Denman Chase. The result would be far more competitive and interesting racing for racegoers and punters, plus a reversal of this now almost destructive trend that says that everything else has to be sacrificed for the Cheltenham Festival. Whisper it quietly, but last year’s Gold Cup wasn’t actually that good a race and there was far more on offer for the connoisseur in the same season’s King George or Betfair Chase.  One clear advantage that the Flat season enjoys over National Hunt racing is that you are never more than a week or two away from top class action – and you never quite know where the most memorable contest will be run.

Of course for the jumps, the Cheltenham Festival will always be the highlight and there is nothing wrong with that, but it is time that the sport reclaimed the rest of the season and served up competitive racing featuring the best horses all year long. One easy step to help this process on its way is to simply use the racecourses only for what they were intended for – and that is racing horses.

Thank you Black Caviar….

Royal Ascot of 2012 may be remembered by some as the meeting where Frankel proved himself to be the best horse of all time. And surely there can now be no doubters – Sir Henry Cecil’s colt is simply off any normal scale and the style of his demolition in the Queen Anne Stakes once again left one the impression that this horse could win pretty much any Group 1 over the trip of his choosing.

But for me, the real hero of the meeting was Black Caviar. Of course, her victory in the Diamond Jubilee came nowhere near to Frankel in terms of the level of form. Great champions all have their off-days and there is absolutely no doubt that the mare suffered one of those yesterday.  The ride from Luke Nolen was obviously ill-judged, but the real story here was that this was a tired mare who had travelled half way around the world and been on the go in the best sprint company since October. Paddock judges were unimpressed with her pre-race and post race she looked uncomfortable – possibly due to the fact that she reportedly tore two muscles during the race and suffered some bruising.

Predictably, the narrow win and ordinary time led to many in the UK questioning Black Caviar’s previous achievements in Australia, but that view is at best a classic example of ‘recency bias’  - and at worst, pure ignorance.

Black Caviar has totally dominated Australian sprinting for the past three years, winning 21 straight races including 11 Group 1s. Not sure how good those Aussies are? Well, to give one example – she has bashed up Star Witness (yes the Star Witness who came half way round the world last year to be beaten ½ length in the King’s Stand) three times by 4 lengths, 4 lengths and 7 3/4 lengths on the three occasions they have met. She has recorded sub ten-second times over 200m (that’s incredibly fast) and sectionals way in advance of what the likes of Miss Andretti and Takeover Target ever managed in their home land. And for the final piece of the jigsaw, take a look at the form of Soul (beaten just over a length yesterday in the Diamond Jubilee) when he was in Australia. You can play around with his formlines any which way you like, but you will reach the same conclusion – he was miles behind Black Caviar in Australia. With the news that Black Caviar was injured during the race, it is almost ridiculous to think she was operating at anything other than right towards the bottom end of her possible performance range. Yet, she still won.

So, let’s forget the parochial knocking of this Australian champion, who won our top Group 1 sprint yesterday despite going through both pain and exhaustion barriers. Instead, let’s thank Black Caviar, Peter Moody, her owners and Ascot’s Nick Smith for getting this tremendous champion to Royal Ascot yesterday. Everyone in attendance yesterday will have had their own experience, but mine was that I have never witnessed such tension and excitement prior to any horse race.

It might be a long, long time until we see anything quite like it again.

Frankel needs a new script…

We have known for months now that Black Caviar was coming over to Royal Ascot for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, but there was still something exciting about seeing her in a specially made lycra travelling suit at the airport in South Australia ready to embark on the epic journey over to the UK.  Yes – she really is coming over.

The 21 times unbeaten Australian champion, already an iconic sports star ‘Down Under’ – coming over to England prove to the world what she is capable of.  British racing should be proud, humbled and maybe just a little bit ashamed. Proud that our racing, despite distinctly mediocre prize-money, still really matters and humbled that such a great champion is to grace our biggest race meeting. Why ashamed? Well, the rather depressing reality is that while this terrific mare is travelling half way around the world to prove how good she is, the connections of our champion racehorse, Frankel, are threatening to show virtually no adventure whatsoever with their 2012 campaign.

Queen Anne, Sussex Stakes, Juddmonte International and the Champions Stakes seems to be the best guess of his likely campaign based on Sir Henry Cecil’s recent comments. That to me reads like walkover, walkover, slight question mark and the same. Yes, the step up to 10 furlongs will present a new test, but it seems Frankel will avoid So You Think and Camelot’s connections look to be favoring a crack at the St Leger over meeting Frankel – so even if the horse isn’t quite as good over ten furlongs, these races should still turn out to be a mere formality.

Sadly it now seems that the idea of a race against Black Caviar is dead in the water. According to many senior figures in the sport, asking Frankel to step back to 7 furlongs for such a race would severely compromise his training routine (lord only knows how Bart Cummings gets Melbourne Cup winners to win Group 1′s over 7 furlongs)  And of course, they “have to do what is best for the horse”.  If what is best for the horse involves getting a polite round of applause whilst beating the same rivals time and again at 1-5 then they are bang on course. If it means getting people engaged with their champion, lining the streets with Frankel flags and filling town squares to watch him take on the world’s best, then it is time for them to think again.  Ludicrous you might say – and for British racing it probably is – but that is exactly what will be happening in Melbourne when Black Caviar runs at Royal Ascot and I think this meeting will bring sharply into focus how our leading trainers’ stuffy, outdated approach to campaigning their horses is holding the sport back.

Frankel’s connections have a once in a lifetime horse that they are campaigning like a good but not great animal whom they are trying to protect from defeat. Take on Black Caviar, run in the Breeders Cup Classic (perhaps against a  US Triple Crown winner) go for the Arc and face Camelot or head to the Far East to take on Orfevre and co in the Japan Cup.

Just please do something – anything – that will engage and excite fans and get them asking ‘can he do it today?’ and not ‘how easily will he do it today’?

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And while we are on the subject…

We are bound to hear that Frankel’s Queen Anne and Black Caviar’s Diamond Jubilee are races ‘to savour’ and not for betting on. Forget that and get as much as you can on Paddy Power’s offer of 10-11 that both horses win at Royal Ascot. Pretty much the ONLY doubt about this bet is whether Black Caviar is 100% after her long journey and Peter Moody has made it perfectly clear that he will not run her if he isn’t completely happy with her. And, if Black Caviar or Frankel don’t show up, Paddy Power refund stakes on the bet. I genuinely think this should be about a 2-5 shot and it will be a great way to cheer on the two best horses on the planet.

Crunch time for Trending…

“It’s not the despair… I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.”

History will record (or maybe it won’t) that on March 9th 2012, a horse was applauded back into the unsaddling enclosure at Wolverhampton by his owners, having finished 5th in a 0-55 contest over 6 furlongs.

An unlikely tale you might think, until you realise that that horse was of course the superbly supported #twitterhorse, Trending…

And what exactly was it about this run – rated just 49 by the Racing Post (i.e not very good) that encouraged his owners to break into applause? It is that word that keeps cropping up in these blogs. Hope.

Having put in two runs at Kempton that would have made a police horse blush (or whatever horses do when they are embarrassed), Trending finally gave his faithful supporters just a glimmer…

From his wide draw, Trending was restrained out the back early and up to his usual tricks, throwing his head around and refusing to settle. Stone last early and potential embarrassment shortening up by the second.

However, as the race developed it became clear that this cheek-pieced son of Dark Angel was arguably travelling better than a couple – no, make that three or even four. Entering the straight, he still had all but one to pass. Would he find anything? On all known form, probably not.

But no – the horse was inhaling rivals in the straight. Ok, artistic licence – but he was definitely passing a few, 8th, 7th, 6th and – thank god – respectability as he ran right to the line to finish 5th of thirteen.

Maybe he needs further? What if he could settle? Maybe he doesn’t like kickback? Better on turf?

Suddenly, we had a contender again. We even (half) impressed the sages at Timeform  – Trending “one to keep an eye on” the verdict of the Halifax scholars.

There is always someone to pour cold water over things, though. This time it was the Handicapper. Clearly unimpressed by the race, he put the horse down 2lb for the run to a mark of 49**.

We’ll show him. Now, we just needed a race we could win.

(** Note: With most horses you want their rating to go down to give you a theoretically better chance at the weights when you next run. But, when you get to around 50 – you don’t want them to fall any further, otherwise you will struggle to even get a run in a race. This is the problem when you end up in the bottom rung of racing’s rating pyramid)

A quick glance at the programme book confirmed there were very limited opportunities for 3yo gelding rated 49 – so we needed to strike soon and try to get that rating up.

Wolverhampton, 23rd March, 0-55 for 3 year olds over 7f. D-Day.

Will it be joy or despair for “The Twitterati” at Dunstall Park? Well – we need to get a run first – and if two horses come out (they should do) and we get a decent draw (not out in the bloody car park again please), then despair is definitely still a decent favourite, but joy isn’t quite the hopeless outsider that it has been in recent starts. And – the main thing is we have hope; hope going in -  and with a bit of luck, hope coming out.

We’ll always take that.

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Reflections on Cheltenham….

The Highlight: No question about this for me. Seeing proven equine superstars win in the silks of bronzed millionaires (taking their traditional spring break from Barbados) is enjoyable up to a point – but how refreshing was it to see Hunt Ball land a festival win for his eccentric owner, Anthony Knott? If someone had claimed at this point last year, when Hunt Ball was rated just 69, that the horse would be quoted at 25-1 for the 2013 Gold Cup in a year’s time, you would have suggested they seek some form of secure, padded, accommodation. The horse’s rise from rags ro riches has been simply astonishing and if there has been a more spectacular progression over a year – flat or jumps – then I must have missed it. What has made the whole thing even more enjoyable is that the owner, Anthony Knott is something of a cult hero in racing circles. Knott will always be remembered for his tremendous celebration when he finally landed his first win as a jockey after 28 years of trying – and fans of the nutty dairy farmer were treated to more fun and games in the aftermath of this year’s success. If you missed his post race interview with Nick Luck – well, you can enjoy it now (courtesy of RUK’s Youtube channel).

The Lowlight: An easy choice too. Cross Country chases at this track rarely seems to pass without some kind of unwelcome or farcical incident and this time it was the sad demise of two old favourites, Garde Champetre and Scotsirish. Whether their deaths were caused by unsuitably fast conditions is difficult to know, but regardless – these races really have no place at the Festival.

Right trip: Many, myself included, doubted whether the supremely talented Simonsig was heading for the right race at the Festival. But the judgement of his jockey, Barry Geraghty, was proven to be spot on as Nicky Henderson’s gelding ran out an extremely impressive winner of the Neptune hurdle. More dilemmas lie ahead for connections  – as this horse has so many options next year it is almost frightening. He possesses the speed of a potential Champion hurdler, yet the scope of a chaser who could rise to the top at a variety of trips.

Wrong trip: David Pipe doesn’t think Grands Crus was beaten due to his stamina failing – and maybe there was slightly more to his sub-par performance than the trip alone. That said, I remain convinced that we will only see the best of this horse once he is stepped back in distance. If Grands Crus is freshened up and there is some cut in the ground, I reckon they should go for the Melling Chase over 2m4f at Aintree.

Right jockey: For riding performance of the week, look no further than Paul Carberry on Bellvano in the Grand Annual. Carberry may lack the consistency of the likes of Ruby Walsh or Barry Geraghty in the saddle, but there are occasions when he produces a ride of sublime brilliance that none of the others could match. This was one of them.

Wrong jockey: I took a bit of flak on Twitter for suggesting that Sam Waley-Cohen‘s ride on Long Run was ‘average’ but I stand by the comment. Sam is a good amateur, but I don’t think he presents a horse at a fence as well as the top pros and he is simply not in the same league as Geraghty, Walsh and McCoy. At the very top level, these jockeys make a difference (as anyone who backed Synchronised yesterday would tesify). Was Long Run at his best yesterday? No – given the relative proximity of much lower rated rivals, almost certainly not. But, I still think he could have won the race with Barry Geraghty in the saddle.

Changing of the guard: Despite winning the Champion Hurdle and World Hurdle, Paul Nicholls looked and sounded a desperately disappointed man when interviewed on RUK yesterday. Obviously, the Kauto Star story didn’t produce the fairytale ending, but it won’t have escaped Nicholls’ notice that so many of the exciting horses to have come out of the festival are stabled at Seven Barrows. While Henderson has Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre (who won’t be beaten next season), Bob’s Worth and Long Run, Nicholls does not have one chaser quoted at less than 25-1 for either the 2013 Champion Chase or the Gold Cup. While this year’s trainers title is still in the balance – next year’s looks a penalty kick for Nicky Henderson.

Big Buck’s – the majority of the Nicholls horses disappointed over the week and that must have been the main reason that Big Buck’s drifted to what looked an incredible price of 5-6 on the day. Despite everyone knowing how good the horse is, I remain convinced that the betting market consistently fails to price the ‘superior’ winning-machine type horse correctly. This is perhaps partly due to the fact that bookies are forced to bet each-way on these races and this leads to the odds on the other horses being quoted at prices way lower than their actual winning chance due to the associated place price. One might think that the betting exchange market would be alive to this inefficiency, but in my view it isn’t – and time and again, horses like Big Buck’s and Frankel drift to prices that underestimate their chance. It goes without saying that any horse can be beaten – and also that you need fairly deep pockets (and a fair bit of bottle) to make money out of backing long odds-on shots, but even so – I believe there is a real inefficiency in the market there.

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